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Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 07:36:49 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Jan 11, 2002
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[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
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evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
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ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Friday, Jan 11, 2002 at 07:=
35AM EST    Commentary last updated: Friday, Jan 11, 2002 at 09:42AM EST  M=
eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulation=
s Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA=
/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: A=
MS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe=
 Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of '=
Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Friday, January 11, 2002   S=
yncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAG=
E][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR=
) 41 +1 ERCOT(SP) 58 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 45 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(=
HP) 42 +4 NPCC(NE) 39 -1 SERC(SE) 59 +2 SPP(SP) 55 +5 WSCC(NW) 45 +2 WSCC(R=
K) 42 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg =
CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 40 38 43 33 59 53 57 Max 42 47 42 46 42 63 =
58 62 Min 34 35 36 39 26 55 47 53 Range 8 12 6 7 16 8 11 9 StD-P 2.5 3.6 1.=
4 2.0 4.2 2.1 2.9 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each=
 Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion: =
  Big Storm may form off the New England coast this weekend. Energy from th=
e Pacific criss crosses the country next week. Arctic air gets closer but r=
emains North of the border.  The New England storm will be a near miss it a=
ppears this weekend as it bombs out to sea. Perhaps Eastern Mass. gets a br=
ush by but otherwise its a light rain/snow wind event. The next system of n=
ote comes in to the NW this weekend and develops low pressure in the Centra=
l Plains by Tuesday. North of the track even though temperatures remain abo=
ve normal, they won't be of the record warmth this week. It will be cold en=
ough to lay down some snow North of 35 degrees Latitude. The SE then starts=
 to warm up relative to normal as high pressure slips off the coast. While =
it may be a seasonably active period, five day temperature numbers wil! l l=
ikely average above normal nationwide.     Tomorrow: Saturday, January 12, =
2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE=
]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   =
ECAR(CTR) 41 +4 ERCOT(SP) 60 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 44 +4 MAIN(CTR) 38 =
+1 MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 34 +4 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 50 -2 WSCC(NW) 45 +=
2 WSCC(RK) 43 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE=
]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 39 36 42 37 56 53 58 Max 42 47 42 4=
6 43 63 58 62 Min 33 33 31 38 30 52 46 54 Range 9 14 11 8 13 11 12 8 StD-P =
2.4 4.0 3.1 2.0 3.7 3.1 3.7 2.6 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  t=
o See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Sund=
ay, January 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix =
   [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlar=
ge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 -4 ERCOT(SP) 61 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(NE) 44 =
NC MAIN(CTR) 34 -1 MAPP(HP) 31 +1 NPCC(NE) 37 +5 SERC(SE) 55 NC SPP(SP) 52 =
+2 WSCC(NW) 37 NC WSCC(RK) 35 +2 WSCC(SW) 59 NC     Range Standard Deviatio=
n [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 37 36 36 32 52 55 5=
6 Max 38 43 39 45 43 59 61 61 Min 28 33 33 31 24 47 49 52 Range 10 10 6 14 =
19 12 12 9 StD-P 3.0 2.6 1.8 3.5 5.2 4.2 3.1 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12=
 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Mat=
rix    Day 4: Monday, January 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   =
Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click=
 on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 -3 ERCOT(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) =
72 -1 MAAC(NE) 38 -2 MAIN(CTR) 34 NC MAPP(HP) 29 +2 NPCC(NE) 28 -2 SERC(SE)=
 55 NC SPP(SP) 48 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 +3 WSCC(SW) 57 -1     Range=
 Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 3=
2 32 34 31 54 54 54 Max 35 39 38 40 38 58 60 59 Min 31 27 24 30 24 50 47 49=
 Range 4 12 14 10 14 8 13 10 StD-P 1.3 3.9 5.3 2.8 4.4 2.7 4.0 2.9 Count 10=
 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within =
the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Tuesday, January 15, 2002   Syncrasy's Choi=
ce:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IM=
AGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCOT(=
SP) 64 +5 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 39 -5 MAIN(CTR) 35 +4 MAPP(HP) 27 +4 NPCC=
(NE) 28 -3 SERC(SE) 56 +2 SPP(SP) 49 +8 WSCC(NW) 38 -1 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(=
SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK=
 SE SP SW Mean 32 30 30 34 27 53 58 51 Max 34 35 37 39 36 58 61 57 Min 28 2=
5 20 29 19 47 53 46 Range 6 10 17 10 17 11 8 11 StD-P 1.5 2.4 4.8 2.8 5.2 3=
.3 2.6 3.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Fo=
recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  I continu=
e to see forecasts in the 6-10 day period calling for cold weather. The NWS=
 outlook is below normal almost nationwide. But, notice they go near normal=
 in the Northern Plains. That is significant as it refers to source region =
of air masses. If the North is above normal short term and near normal mid =
term then where is the alleged arctic air coming from? What may actually ha=
ppen is a re-development of the broad trough occurs over the Eastern half o=
f the country next week. That is straight out of the MRF playbook. The oper=
ational runs of the Canadian and European do not concur. I certainly accept=
 no ridge in the Eastern U.S. but the bottom line in my view is this still =
is not a very cold pattern. The NWS had NO ONE , not one location above nor=
mal in their 6-10 day period. I think most of the South and East w! ill run=
 above normal during the period, just not excessively so. The North and Wes=
t will run close to normal. Interestingly enough, the European day 10 looks=
 to be the coldest of the medium range models. Since it seems to be my favo=
rite this winter, there could be some credibility to some arctic air the la=
st 10 days of the month. But, even its appearance makes it difficult in my =
view for any real cold to get very far South.     Day 6: Wednesday, January=
 16, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's=
 Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +4 E=
RCOT(SP) 58 +3 FRCC(SE) 72 +2 MAAC(NE) 43 +2 MAIN(CTR) 29 NC MAPP(HP) 19 -2=
 NPCC(NE) 33 +2 SERC(SE) 54 +2 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 30 NC =
WSCC(SW) 56 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE =
NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 27 32 36 24 55 56 50 Max 34 30 36 42 32 59 64 56 Min=
 24 20 28 31 15 50 48 44 Range 10 10 8 11 17 9 16 12 StD-P 1.8 1.9 1.5 3.3 =
5.3 2.6 5.2 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forec=
ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Thursday, January 17, 2002  =
 Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IM=
AGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(C=
TR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 56 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +4 MAAC(NE) 43 +5 MAIN(CTR) 27 -1 MAP=
P(HP) 21 -3 NPCC(NE) 34 +4 SERC(SE) 51 +2 SPP(SP) 44 +2 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC=
(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 57 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Re=
g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 28 35 37 26 56 52 51 Max 33 32 41 42 35 6=
2 63 57 Min 22 23 30 33 19 51 40 46 Range 11 9 11 9 16 11 23 11 StD-P 2.4 2=
.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.1 7.3 2.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each We=
ather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Friday, January =
18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][I=
MAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE=
]   ECAR(CTR) 28 -1 ERCOT(SP) 52 +8 FRCC(SE) 63 +1 MAAC(NE) 34 +5 MAIN(CTR)=
 26 -5 MAPP(HP) 20 -13 NPCC(NE) 35 +9 SERC(SE) 42 +2 SPP(SP) 37 -3 WSCC(NW)=
 38 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -7 WSCC(SW) 51 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [=
IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 26 32 38 26 53 52 52 Max 31 31=
 34 42 33 60 60 58 Min 23 24 26 34 20 46 45 49 Range 8 7 8 8 13 14 15 9 StD=
-P 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 4.1 4.2 3.7 2.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See=
 Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Saturday,=
 January 19, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)=
   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 28 -3 ERCOT(SP) 48 -2 FRCC(SE) 69 +7 MAAC(NE) 38 +3 =
MAIN(CTR) 17 -14 MAPP(HP) 18 -13 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 46 +2 SPP(SP) 38 -=
5 WSCC(NW) 36 -3 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation=
 [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 29 30 36 30 51 50 52=
 Max 26 30 33 42 35 55 54 58 Min 14 24 25 34 26 45 46 49 Range 12 6 8 8 9 1=
0 8 9 StD-P 3.0 1.3 2.2 2.5 2.9 1.8 2.8 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Her=
e  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10=
: Sunday, January 20, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility M=
atrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to=
 enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 25 -3 ERCOT(SP) 60 +6 FRCC(SE) 63 +3 MAAC(N=
E) 34 NC MAIN(CTR) 29 -5 MAPP(HP) 27 -10 NPCC(NE) 28 -5 SERC(SE) 43 +1 SPP(=
SP) 45 -3 WSCC(NW) 33 -5 WSCC(RK) 22 -9 WSCC(SW) 49 -5     Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 22 25 22 30 21 =
44 52 42 Max 28 29 29 33 24 48 57 49 Min 14 18 11 26 16 37 44 34 Range 14 1=
1 18 7 8 11 13 15 StD-P 5.7 4.2 5.5 3.0 2.1 4.2 3.4 6.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6=
 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr=
ix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasm=
a displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed =
from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     =
[IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
